Hi ZS, assuming that whether not really one wins or loses on one scratch ticket (what is that, in either case?) is independent from winning or losing on every other scratch ticket, you treat each event as persistent event. Laws of probability tell us to multiply the various probabilities of independent ordeals. It appears that the probability of [losing] on any particular scratch ticket must be 2/3. Propensity the probabilities of [losing] on 30 scratch tickets one after the other (if it is precisely what your is actually asking) should be (2/3)^30 = approximately your own.2 x 10^-6, which is about.0000052, or 52 via 10 million, which depends upon 1 chance out of 192,307.

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